
MONTE CARLO–BASED PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW COMBINED WITH OPTIMIZED STATIC VAR COMPENSATORS SOLUTIONS FOR RADIAL DISTRIBUTION NETWORK | IJET – Volume 12 Issue 1 | IJET-V12I1P45

Table of Contents
ToggleInternational Journal of Engineering and Techniques (IJET)
Open Access • Peer Reviewed • High Citation & Impact Factor • ISSN: 2395-1303
Volume 12, Issue 1 | Published: February 2026
Author:W. Ikonwa, U.S. Okogbule
DOI: https://zenodo.org/records/18696870 • PDF: Download
Abstract
This paper presents a Monte Carlo–based probabilistic load flow (PLF) framework combined with optimized multi–Static Var Compensator (SVC) integration for voltage stability enhancement in radial distribution networks under stochastic load variations. Load uncertainties are modeled using Gaussian probability distributions, and repeated backward–forward sweep load flow solutions are employed to quantify voltage profile distributions and voltage instability probabilities. A probabilistic voltage instability index is formulated to evaluate the likelihood of voltage violations at each bus. The proposed method is applied to an actual 11 kV, 34-bus Ayepe radial distribution network in Ibadan, Nigeria, enabling realistic assessment beyond standard IEEE test systems. Simulation results demonstrate that optimal SVC placement significantly improves mean voltage profiles and reduces voltage instability probabilities. While single SVC integration yields noticeable voltage support, coordinated multi-SVC deployment provides superior performance, reducing the total voltage instability probability from 16.04 in the base case to 0.1067 and raising the minimum mean bus voltage above acceptable limits. The study confirms the effectiveness of Monte Carlo PLF combined with optimized multi-SVC integration for robust voltage stability analysis in uncertain distribution network environments.
Keywords
Static Var Compensator (SVC), Monte Carlo, Radial Distribution Network, Probability.
Conclusion
This study has demonstrated the effectiveness of Monte Carlo–based probabilistic load flow analysis combined with optimized multi-SVC integration for voltage stability enhancement in radial distribution networks subject to load uncertainty. By explicitly modeling stochastic variations in real and reactive power demands, the proposed framework provides a more realistic assessment of voltage behavior compared to conventional deterministic methods. Application to the 11 kV Ayepe 34-bus distribution network reveals that voltage instability risks are significant under probabilistic operating conditions, particularly at heavily loaded and remote feeder buses. The integration of SVCs at optimally selected locations substantially improves mean voltage profiles and reduces voltage violation probabilities. While a single SVC offers meaningful voltage support, the coordinated deployment of multiple SVC units delivers markedly superior performance, virtually eliminating voltage instability across the network. The results highlight the importance of probabilistic analysis and coordinated reactive power compensation for effective planning and operation of weak radial distribution systems. The proposed approach is therefore well suited for practical deployment in developing power networks characterized by high uncertainty and weak voltage regulation.
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Cite this article
APA
W. Ikonwa, U.S. Okogbule (February 2026). MONTE CARLO–BASED PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW COMBINED WITH OPTIMIZED STATIC VAR COMPENSATORS SOLUTIONS FOR RADIAL DISTRIBUTION NETWORK. International Journal of Engineering and Techniques (IJET), 12(1). https://zenodo.org/records/18696870
W. Ikonwa, U.S. Okogbule, “MONTE CARLO–BASED PROBABILISTIC LOAD FLOW COMBINED WITH OPTIMIZED STATIC VAR COMPENSATORS SOLUTIONS FOR RADIAL DISTRIBUTION NETWORK,” International Journal of Engineering and Techniques (IJET), vol. 12, no. 1, February 2026, doi: https://zenodo.org/records/18696870.
