Water scarcity has become one of the most critical challenges in semi-arid regions due to rapid population growth, expansion of agricultural activities, and increasing variability in climatic conditions. Efficient planning and management of water resources are essential to ensure long-term sustainability and economic development. This study presents an Integrated Water Demand Forecasting and Allocation Model (IWDFAM) for Tiruvannamalai district, Tamil Nadu, India, aimed at assessing future water demand, evaluating water availability, and proposing sustainable management strategies. Population forecasting was carried out using a linear regression method to estimate future growth trends up to the year 2050. Domestic water demand was calculated using the per capita water consumption approach, while agricultural demand was estimated based on irrigated area and crop water requirements. Industrial demand was considered as a percentage of domestic demand. Water availability was evaluated by analyzing surface water sources such as tanks, reservoirs, and rivers, along with groundwater recharge estimated from rainfall data and recharge coefficients. The results indicate that the total water demand is projected to reach approximately 1433 million cubic meters (MCM) per year, while total water availability is estimated at around 1198 MCM per year, resulting in a deficit of 235 MCM per year. Scenario analysis reveals that the deficit could increase under unfavorable conditions such as reduced rainfall and increased water demand. However, the implementation of sustainable water management practices such as drip irrigation, rainwater harvesting, wastewater reuse, and groundwater recharge can significantly reduce the deficit and even lead to water surplus. The developed model provides a systematic and practical decision-support tool for water resource planners and policymakers. It can be applied to similar semi-arid regions to improve water resource management and achieve sustainability.

This study developed an Integrated Water Demand Forecasting and Allocation Model (IWDFAM) for Tiruvannamalai district. The model combines population forecasting, water demand estimation, water availability assessment, and sustainable water management strategies. The key conclusions of the study are: 1.Water demand is expected to increase significantly due to population growth. 2.Agricultural sector consumes the majority of water resources. 3.Water availability is limited and mainly dependent on groundwater. 4.A significant water deficit is expected in the future under current conditions. 5.Scenario analysis indicates that water scarcity may worsen under adverse conditions. 6.Sustainable water management practices can reduce water deficit and improve availability. The study demonstrates that integrated modeling is essential for effective water resource planning. The developed model can be used as a decision-support tool by policymakers, engineers, and planners.

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